Most Common MLB Final Scores: Exact Results and Fair Odds
One-run games dominate baseball's exact-score charts, but even the most frequent final is a long price. Here is how often each score lands and what it is fairly worth.
Exact-score betting in baseball looks like a lottery, but the scores are not random. I took every MLB regular-season game of nine or more innings from 2000-2025, which comes to 61,233 games, and counted how each one ended. The question is simple: which finals come up most, and what are they worth?
The headline answer is 4-3, the final in 5.3% of games, with fair odds of +1787. It sits fractionally ahead of 3-2, and the 10 most common scores together cover 37.7% of all games. These numbers are the backdrop to the exact-score angles on my baseball winning tips page. They tell me where the probability sits before I add pitching, parks or lineups.
Period 1Close, low-scoring games top the exact-score table
The chart ranks the 15 most frequent finals, written winner-loser, so a 4-3 counts whether the home or road side won. The top four are all one-run games: 4-3 at 5.3%, 3-2 at 5.2%, 5-4 at 4.4% and 2-1 at 4.1%. Then come the two-run margins, with 4-2 at 3.6% and 5-3 at 3.3%.
The pattern makes sense to me. Baseball has no clock, so the trailing side always gets its final turn at the plate, and late-inning bullpen work keeps a lot of games tight. A one-run final is the natural end point of a sport where a single swing decides so much.
View the data: the 15 most common mlb final scores
| Winner-loser, share of 61,233 games | |
|---|---|
| 4-3 | 5.3% |
| 3-2 | 5.2% |
| 5-4 | 4.4% |
| 2-1 | 4.1% |
| 4-2 | 3.6% |
| 5-3 | 3.3% |
| 3-1 | 3.1% |
| 6-5 | 3.1% |
| 5-2 | 2.9% |
| 4-1 | 2.7% |
| 6-3 | 2.7% |
| 6-4 | 2.4% |
| 5-1 | 2.4% |
| 6-2 | 2.4% |
| 7-6 | 2.0% |
The tail matters too. Across the sample there were 223 different final scores, and 29 of them happened only once. The winning team scored 10 or more runs in 14.7% of games, which is the reminder that blowouts are part of the season.
Period 2Fair odds put even the top score at a long price
This table converts each share into fair odds, meaning 1 divided by the frequency, in American format with no bookmaker margin. A 4-3 final for either team is +1787 and 3-2 is +1823. Moving down the list, 5-4 is +2173, 2-1 is +2339, and by 6-4 you are at +4067.
No single final score reaches 8% of games, so there is no short-priced exact score in baseball. The famous 1-0 pitchers' duel, for comparison, appeared in 1.8% of games with fair odds of +5456.
| Final score | Games | Share | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | 3,247 | 5.3% | +1787 |
| 3-2 | 3,212 | 5.2% | +1823 |
| 5-4 | 2,704 | 4.4% | +2173 |
| 2-1 | 2,527 | 4.1% | +2339 |
| 4-2 | 2,193 | 3.6% | +2678 |
| 5-3 | 2,029 | 3.3% | +2930 |
| 3-1 | 1,919 | 3.1% | +3126 |
| 6-5 | 1,892 | 3.1% | +3126 |
| 5-2 | 1,760 | 2.9% | +3348 |
| 4-1 | 1,627 | 2.7% | +3604 |
| 6-3 | 1,623 | 2.7% | +3604 |
| 6-4 | 1,498 | 2.4% | +4067 |
Fair odds = 1 / share, American format, no margin.
When I look at a price offered by a major bookmaker, this table is my baseline. If the offered number is shorter than fair, the margin is eating the bet before a pitch is thrown. Bear in mind these odds are for either team winning by that score, so a price for one named team winning 4-3 is a narrower outcome and should be longer.
Period 3Thirty scores cover nearly three quarters of games
The line tracks how much of the season is covered as you add scores from most to least common. The single most common score covers 5.3%, the top 10 reach 37.7%, and the top 30 reach 73.4%. The curve climbs steadily rather than shooting up early, which tells you outcomes are spread widely.
For a bettor, this is the honest picture of exact-score markets. Even backing several of the most likely finals still leaves most games landing somewhere else. Spreading stakes across a cluster of scores can make sense, but each extra score adds less coverage than the one before it.
View the data: how concentrated are mlb final scores?
| Share of games | |
|---|---|
| 1 | 5.3% |
| 2 | 10.5% |
| 3 | 15.0% |
| 4 | 19.1% |
| 5 | 22.7% |
| 6 | 26.0% |
| 7 | 29.1% |
| 8 | 32.2% |
| 9 | 35.1% |
| 10 | 37.7% |
| 11 | 40.4% |
| 12 | 42.8% |
| 13 | 45.3% |
| 14 | 47.7% |
| 15 | 49.7% |
| 16 | 51.6% |
| 17 | 53.5% |
| 18 | 55.3% |
| 19 | 57.0% |
| 20 | 58.8% |
| 21 | 60.6% |
| 22 | 62.3% |
| 23 | 63.9% |
| 24 | 65.5% |
| 25 | 66.9% |
| 26 | 68.3% |
| 27 | 69.7% |
| 28 | 71.0% |
| 29 | 72.2% |
| 30 | 73.4% |
Period 43-2 has caught 4-3 in the recent era
The dumbbell compares 2000-09 with 2020-25. In 2000-09 the top final was 4-3 at 5.1%; in 2010-19 and 2020-25 it was 3-2, at 5.6% and then 5.5%. The 3-2 share moved from 4.8% to 5.5%, and 2-1 from 3.6% to 4.1%, while 5-4 eased from 4.4% to 4.2%.
I read this as a modest drift towards lower-scoring tight games rather than a revolution. Single-score shares are small, so a 0.3-point move between eras is well within normal variation, and the 2020-25 block includes the 60-game 2020 season.
View the data: top scores then and now
| 2000-09 | 2020-25 | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 (3,247 games) | 5.1% | 5.3% |
| 3-2 (3,212 games) | 4.8% | 5.5% |
| 5-4 (2,704 games) | 4.4% | 4.2% |
| 2-1 (2,527 games) | 3.6% | 4.1% |
| 4-2 (2,193 games) | 3.4% | 3.5% |
| 5-3 (2,029 games) | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| 3-1 (1,919 games) | 2.8% | 3.2% |
| 6-5 (1,892 games) | 3.4% | 3.1% |
My main caveat sits here: every one of these shares depends on the run environment. A hitter-friendly park, warm air or a weak pair of starters shifts the whole distribution upwards, so I treat the league-wide table as a starting point, never a final answer.
Full-time verdict
Compare any exact-score price against the fair line, such as +1787 for 4-3 or +1823 for 3-2. If the offer is shorter, pass.
Lean towards 3-2 and 2-1 when strong starters meet in a pitcher-friendly park, and towards 5-4 or 6-5 when the run environment is high. The league shares assume an average night.
The 10 most common finals cover only 37.7% of games, so keep exact-score stakes small. Even the best read loses most nights in this market.
Questions bettors ask
What is the most common final score in MLB?
Across 61,233 regular-season games from 2000-2025, the most common final was 4-3, in 5.3% of games. 3-2 was a very close second at 5.2%.
What are fair odds for a 4-3 MLB final?
Based on its 5.3% frequency, a 4-3 final for either team has fair odds of +1787 with no margin. Any price shorter than that carries a built-in edge for the bookmaker.
How often does an MLB game end 1-0?
A 1-0 final appeared in 1.8% of games in the sample. That works out to fair odds of +5456.
I'm Yuki Tanaka, and I write the baseball winning tips at correct-score.vip โ a sport where pitching matchups and patience matter more than anything.
View profile โ
